Can Putin Restore Russia’s Superpower Status?

By Paul Seibel – Contributor

Moscow’s intervention with Kazakhstan’s violent unrest earlier this year is a firm reminder that Russian hegemony in the former Soviet republics is still a priority for them. Tensions began to escalate among its citizens on January 2, 2022 over inflation and the Kazakhstan government’s decision to lift the price cap on fuel. Over several days, initial demonstrations spread across the nation and turned violent. Russian troops officially representing the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) were brought in to work with Kazakhstan security forces to quell the dissent and were issued a “Shoot to kill” order by Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. After the riots calmed down and order was restored it was reported that the death toll rose to 225 people killed. These deaths were either due to the riots or were caused by shootings from the Kazakh security forces. This situation highlighted an important issue – Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin’s struggle to restore Russia to its USSR levels of hegemony.

There continues to be a vast amount of dependence on Russia despite the Soviet Union breaking apart and many independent countries forming from the edges. A significant part of this is due to Russia’s ongoing bid to reclaim that power and prevent further loss of its regional influence. The creation of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was a direct response to this and the Western nations’ creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

In addition to being a part of CSTO, Kazakhstan currently has deep ties to Russia economically, particularly with its exports of energy fuels, which almost entirely pass through Russia. Its dependence on Russia can also be seen in its use of CSTO forces to help with the riots and its decision-making on the fuel crisis. As unrest continues to grow in Central Asia along with China’s intent on expanding its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Russia will need to grow to increase its influence in Central Asia and other former Soviet nations. As it stands, Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine is preventing it from achieving this strategy. However, a further alignment with China may help play a role in Moscow’s attempt to reclaim their former level of influence in the region.

Current Status of Russia

As it stands, Russia has been struggling since the 2014 Crimean invasion to keep up with the global economy and Western living standards due to several factors. Before the Ukrainian invasion, Russia was reluctant to trade and economically integrate with western nations comprehensively. Led by Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin and its supporters primarily view the West and NATO as a security threat. They also view any sort of integration as giving in to the USA’s desire for world power and being exposed to invasion. This belief is supported by Russia’s history of defending itself from invaders on all sides, notably ones in Western Europe and Eastern Asia.

The geography of the USSR, namely its possession of the Baltics, Caucasus, and Central Asia, provided this defense and would still provide a great defense from the West to this day. Losing these nations would leave Russia vulnerable and further be unable to trust the United States and Europe. NATO currently has not indicated having a plan nor a desire to invade Russia, however, Russian state propaganda feeds this belief to its citizens to gain support for defying the West. Putin has made it clear that he wants Russia to regain its former superpower status through its own means without being too reliant on other nations. This has led to the strategy seen today of using cyber warfare and other asymmetrical means to sow division among other countries. It also tests the will of NATO each time through their military movements.

So far, this has not worked out very well. Russia’s economy on the world stage is far lower than it could be and has fared even worse overall than some of its own former states in the Baltics. The aggression shown by Russia has caused NATO and others to apply sanctions which have so far impacted Russia’s economy by forcing it to become more self-reliant and “sanction proof”. This has come with the downsides of limiting markets and opportunities, but now that sanctions are increasing, significant damage is being done. The Russian dependence on oil exports is a significant example since they are tied to market limitations.

Russia’s antagonism on the world stage continues to stifle their economy. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline could have provided significant economic benefits. The pipeline would not have only increased the export of gas to Europe but would have allowed Russia to avoid transit fees of passing through the transit states. However, distrust of Russia and its intentions for having so much control of Europe’s gas industry has led to constant setbacks. Depriving the transit states of that revenue is also an issue, but likely would not have caused nearly as much of a controversy on its own.

The pipeline is now finished. However, it is still not in use due to sanctioning for Russia’s actions in Ukraine and seems to be unlikely to make any progress any time soon. As a result, the sanctions from the invasion are now hitting Russia and weakening it even further. Russia could be in for disastrous consequences if they do not find a way to overcome them.

Regaining its geographic territory for economic benefits is one of Putin’s solutions to this. The example of Kazakhstan illustrates why Russia has concerns over these former territories. Kazakhstan has massive oil reserves and is one of the largest exporters in the world. Due to Kazakhstan’s geographic location, their options for exporting are limited with the best option leading through Russia. This allows the Russian Federation to control most of the outflow. However, this also gives Kazakhstan some leverage over Russia since they use their proximity to China for the development of pipelines to other nations.

One example that comes to mind is the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline which bypasses Russia for Europe. These are Kazakhstan’s alternatives to Russia if they feel the need to push back. If Putin wants to gain back the power of the USSR, he will need to acquire more soft power influence over this region to control its political and petroleum industries better. So far, by creating the CSTO and Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), he is attempting to do so mainly through soft power means. In addition, Putin’s actions in Crimea and Ukraine show that he is not above using hard power either.

Focusing on building relationships with non-NATO countries such as China and India, while building influence within its geographical region is the other strategy that Russia is utilizing. Putin is achieving this through discounts on oil and making attempts to devalue the US dollar on the world market. Despite the fears that the Russian CSTO troops deployed to Kazakhstan were a cover for a subtle invasion of the nation to draw it back into Russia’s sphere of influence, the troops departed shortly after peace was achieved. Although, it may not have been as direct as an invasion that had been feared by international observers. However, it did still accomplish the goal of increasing Russian influence and showing them to be a reliable partner.

Ukrainian Crisis

The current crisis in Ukraine provides a case study for Russia’s ability to restore its power. They stir up dissent through cyber warfare and use that dissent to invade in the pretense of protecting its supporters from a harsh regime (sometimes fabricated to have been covertly set up by the U.S.).

In previous times Russia could manufacture a crisis on the world stage that would help them gain some type of clout in negotiation processes. As a result, Putin knew that western nations would be willing to give up a lot to retain peace and stability in the region. In fact, he typically utilized this to his advantage in international negotiations until recently.

At this point, Putin has crossed a line that will be very difficult to walk back, and now the Russian population is paying the consequences. So far, the U.S. estimates that well over 10,000 Russian troops have been killed and they are currently fighting to claim authority of the Donbas region. Putin has backed himself into a corner now with no easy way out. Even if the Russian military captures all of Ukraine, he will still have ultimately lost. The economic damage to his country will mostly cripple it, even with China’s limited aid. The Russian military currently does not have nearly enough forces in Ukraine to be able to successfully capture and occupy all of it.

Also military forces elsewhere cannot be moved easily without exposing vulnerabilities to NATO in other areas of Russia. Even if they could, occupation is drastically unpopular with the Russian people, and there would likely be continual casualties inflicted from Ukrainian resistance groups. There is also the possibility that a puppet government might not have a long shelf life if an armed local resistance gains traction in the country. In other words, either ending is far from optimal for the Russians.

The only ending that may be somewhat in Putin’s favor would be if Ukraine agreed to give up Crimea and the eastern contended regions in return for a withdrawal. This could be considered a victory for Putin, but he would have lost so much in return for that small reward. In addition, a consequence for Putin’s Russia is that this whole crisis has also reignited NATO’s resolve and defeated most ongoing talks of disbanding the organization as well as increasing the likeliness for extending it to include Sweden and Finland .

Russian Support for Putin’s Actions

It is important to note that it is often difficult to gain a proper understanding of the Russian public’s beliefs. After all, they are constantly bombarded with Russian propaganda machines, censorship of media and the internet, and stifling of dissent through intimidation and other means on a regular basis. In general, it seems that most people support the overall goals of Putin and believe the western nations are a threat to them. However, they also firmly believe that war is not the answer, and do not look favorably upon the military invasion of Ukraine. While the annexing of Crimea was widely popular and boosted Putin’s ratings, sentiment over Ukraine is quite different. A large-scale war with NATO as a whole is seen as a major fear among the Russian populace.

Thousands of people have protested across Russia against the war and Putin’s government has taken drastic measures to stifle dissent. For example they’ve introduced a law which can send people to prison for 15 years if they do not encourage the official statement of the Russian government. Despite the high number of troop losses, the Russian state media is only acknowledging about 1400 deaths and promoting the idea that Western media is exaggerating the war efforts and damage to Ukrainian citizens. It is difficult to tell just how much the Russians believe this message, or just how long the actual death toll can be withheld.

Censorship may work in the meantime but soldiers will return home either war-scarred or dead. The regime under Putin has been facing issues with the war on a political level of their own. Now intelligence has come out that Putin himself may be misled regarding the losses of the war and the cost of the economic sanctions due to his advisors being afraid of giving him bad news. This suggests possible escalating problems down the road within the power structure of the Kremlin.

Future Unrest in Central Asia

The recent protests and violence in Kazakhstan do not appear to be something that will be a one-off. Evidence based on the behavior of the attackers and the targets they hit suggest that this was not an ordinary protest of working-class people making a demonstration. In fact, it suggests that it began with a rally that got violent when some nefarious group became involved such as the local mafia. The shock of these protests greatly affected the Kazakh government as well as the states neighboring them. Of the Central Asian nations, Kazakhstan is often considered the most stable and successful one in the region.

The group of countries as a whole are still developing and are only slowly making ground in quality of life. They only recently outlawed forced labor in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan just recently opened up specific jobs to women. The countries are ruled by autocrats, except for Kyrgyzstan, but even that has contentious elections. Minerals and oil are the main exports, with little economic diversification, while government corruption runs rampant in the region. These conditions and the history of warring ethnic bloodshed provide a breeding ground for turmoil in the future. Russia has significant influence in this region. However, they may have a lot of trouble bringing order if things begin to pop off.

Competition or Cooperation with China?

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) also has an immense interest in this region. After all, it is crucial for their Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Russia and the PRC have many reasons for contention in this area as each plan to extend its influence to grow in power and regional hegemony. However, NATO and the US have given them a reason to align their interests, at least for the time being. They recently released a lengthy joint statement which affirms their intentions to cooperate more fully going forward.

This includes integrating their economies and applying pressure to the West. While it does not create any formal treaties or directly state anything about military alliances, it is undoubtedly a step in that direction. In fact, it also hints they may do that in the future and is a clear response to the West. If each country perceives the West as their greatest threat, they will find more incentive to work together against their perceived common enemy.

However, it is important to note that they are still in competition with one another, and underneath the surface, distrust still lingers on each side. The sanctions on Russia are having a negative impact on China that they do not want to worsen This is an indicator of possible relationship troubles in the future. For now, Kazakhstan is very much in Russia’s sphere of influence rather than the PRC’s, but that is beginning to erode. As the BRI expands into Central Asia, and it must expand here to work, there will likely be some conflict between the two. It currently appears that they are pushing the issue down the road to deal with their more immediate concerns regarding the United States and its allies. Economic integration with Beijing allows Moscow to avoid the cost of sanctions applied, and also helps both parties to expand their form of government – legitimizing their autocratic means of keeping power and stifling dissent.

Analysis and Conclusion

As it stands, Russia is not well-placed to restore its former superpower status. However, that could change. After all, Russia’s economy is heavily dependent on oil and there is an effort to diversify. They’ve tried to gain better control of the market through projects such as the Nord Stream 2 as well as increasing Russia’s integration with China and others. The result is they are vulnerable to heavy sanctions on the financial industry, as is being made clear. Despite Putin’s desire to cement down his hold on the former Soviet nations, he continues to fight for influence both against the West and against the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In this case, he is losing in some places, such as the Baltics.

The more aggressive Russia becomes on the world stage, the more it seems to be harmed since countries are pushed to NATO for assistance. The Ukrainian invasion has only increased this sentiment and is even pushing neutrality states outside NATO (Sweden and Finland) to reconsider their positions. So far, the strategy of sowing division among the opposition has been somewhat successful, but far from a reliable means. The success varies greatly between instances. Future unrest in Central Asia is very likely and will further test Russia’s capacity for handling it, as well as the Central Asian nations’ tolerance for them.

However, by no means should Russia be underestimated either. In the instances where its cyber warfare and disinformation campaigns have worked, it has done a great deal of damage. Russia’s handling of the Kazakhstan crisis proved its ability to keep peace within its sphere of influence, at least for now. Putin has also learned from the past and taken steps to help ensure Russia can survive sanctions via methods such as stockpiling currencies and reducing its reliance on the US dollar. A tighter alliance with the PRC will significantly increase this ability for both nations who will feed off each other in the great power competition for influence.

The propaganda machine of Russia has many of its citizens viewing the West as the aggressor and enemy, a view dating from the Cold War that is unlikely to change anytime soon. While these strategies pose considerable risk to the West and keep Russia’s population under autocratic rule, they alone will not gain the influence that Putin is seeking. A growing alliance with the PRC, India, and other autocratic regimes in the world is likely the only way to overcome this and give the best shot at reviving Russia’s economic power and influence. However, this comes at the severe risk of dependence on the Chinese regime. It would provide great temptation for the PRC to use such reliance for its own specific gains and self-interests.

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Bonus Material

Why Russia Wants to Restore the Soviet Borders

Source: Caspian Report YouTube Channel