By Dr. Frank C. Danesy– Contributor

The seven-year conflict between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine appears to be escalating with Russian support. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has reported a sharp increase of more than 250% in ceasefire violations in the Donetsk and the Luhansk districts of Ukraine’s Donbas region during the second quarter of 2021. On July 02 alone, OSCE monitors reported more than 1000 such violations, of which more than fifty involved the use of explosives. This was neither the first nor the most substantial transgression of the ceasefire agreement during recent months. Since the Russian troop build-up along the Ukrainian border in March and April of this year, the intensity of the conflict has increased. On April 06, OSCE monitors counted 1,424 ceasefire violations. On April 16, there were 1,642, and on May 17, there were 1,365. There was also considerable use of explosives on these three occasions.

Since the beginning of the year, there have been ceasefire violations in the Donbas region every day. However, during the first quarter of 2021, ceasefire violations averaged less than 100 per day, whereas, in the second quarter, the number grew to roughly 250. All in all, the OSCE monitors counted 22,405 ceasefire violations during the second quarter, up from 8,672 during the first. The second quarter also saw the use of explosives (7,249 in total) which was not the case during the first quarter of the year.

Background

Fighting between the Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatist forces in the Donbas region began after the violent 2014 Ukrainian Revolution. The uprising saw 77 people killed and the nation’s capital as the center of civil unrest. Following the bloodshed and turmoil, the Ukrainian parliament on February 22 declared the country’s pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych unfit to carry out his duties and set a date for early elections in May of that year.

Yanukovych’s ouster was a significant setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose vision has been to create a new Eurasian Union. Less than a week after Yanukovych’s departure, Russia annexed the Ukrainian peninsula Crimea. A month later, Russian-backed separatist groups launched anti-government protests in the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk districts) of Ukraine.  As the tensions escalated into war through March and April 2014, pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists received increasing support from Russia. The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) began in March 2014. Its main tasks are to observe and report impartially, as well as objectively on the situation in Ukraine. Its other primary task is to facilitate dialogue among all parties to the crisis.

By May 2014, Russia was directly involved in the war with a “hybrid approach” using a combination of disinformation tactics, regular troops, irregular fighters, and conventional military support. Hybrid warfare is a grand strategy that blends diplomacy, politics, media, cyberspace, and military force in a flexible and dynamic manner to destabilize and undermine an opponent’s government. Hybrid warfare primarily operates in the shadows with various interfaces and against multiple targets, allowing the aggressor some degree of deniability. This creates ambiguity and impairs the decision-making capabilities of the targeted opponent.

Despite the Russian hybrid strategy, Ukrainian government forces were able to repel the separatists. This prompted Russia to abandon its hybrid strategy. Russia subsequently engaged in a full military invasion through which it drove the Ukrainian government forces back. A first ceasefire, the “Minsk Protocol”, was agreed upon by the warring parties in September 2014. This ceasefire, however, completely collapsed. Further ceasefire agreements were made and also failed. Twenty-nine such agreements have been made to-date.

International Reactions

The United States established diplomatic relations with Ukraine soon after its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. From the outset, the United States has expressed its strong interest in seeing Ukraine become a free and democratic state with a flourishing market economy. The U.S. policy has been to support Ukraine in the face of Russia’s continued aggression towards Ukraine’s sovereignty. The U.S. has also provided Ukraine with help to“strengthen democratic institutions, fight corruption, and promote conditions for economic growth and competition.” The United States also asserted that it “does not, and will not ever, recognize Russia’s attempted annexation of Crimea”. The U.S. continues to work with its “partners to seek a diplomatic solution to the Russia-instigated conflict in eastern Ukraine.” The U.S. has emphasized the importance of the bilateral relationship between the United States and Ukraine. The U.S. has also pledged its support to enhance the relations between Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its full integration in the Euro-Atlantic community.

The NATO Allies have condemned Russia’s military build-up. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has called on Russia to “end its military build-up, stop its provocations and de-escalate the situation”. He also called on Russia “to abide by the Minsk Agreements, end its support for the militants in eastern Ukraine, and withdraw its forces from Ukrainian territory.” Echoing the U.S. position regarding Crimea, Stoltenberg further stated that Russia’s illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea is not and will not be recognized by the NATO Allies. The Allies have also urged Russia to engage in a constructive cooperation with the OSCE on its military activities in the region.

Since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine has sought closer ties with the West. The country began a dialogue with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which led to it joining NATO’s North Atlantic Council in 1991 and the NATO Partnership for Peace programme in 1994. Relations between Ukraine and NATO were further reinforced with the signing of the 1997 Charter on a Distinctive Partnership. This charter laid the foundation for creating the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC), which was mandated to move the cooperation between Ukraine and NATO forward.

Ukraine has expressed interest in becoming a full member of NATO both before and after the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych. There has, however, been reluctance on the part of NATO members to allow Ukraine full NATO membership. In the first decade of this millennium, concerns centered around the impact that Ukraine’s NATO membership could have on NATO’s relationship with Russia. This, however, was not the only concern. Ukraine has a history of lacking adherence to the rule of law, respect for human rights, and fundamental freedoms. These concerns were not only raised during the Yanukovych presidency but since the country’s independence in 1991.

Under the leadership of president Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine has made efforts to address these issues, which the NATO Allies have welcomed. In April 2021, NATO Director General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the country’s “reforms will help bring Ukraine closer to NATO…” If Ukraine would become a full member of NATO, the country would also enjoy the protection of NATO membership. According to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, an armed attack against Ukraine, or any other NATO member state, would be considered an attack against all the NATO member states. In the event of such an attack, the NATO member states would exercise the right of self-defense as recognized by Article 15 of the Charter of the United Nations (NATO 2019).

In its efforts to reinforce its ties with the West, Ukraine has also been pursuing European Union (EU) membership. In 2012, the EU and Ukraine initialed an EU Association Agreement, which was put on hold by the EU following the politically motivated arrest and sentencing of then-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko during the presidency of pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych. Negotiations were reactivated and brought to a successful close following the ouster of Yanukovych in 2014. According to this agreement, the European Union commits to a close relationship with Ukraine based on shared values. These include democratic principles, the rule of law, good governance, human rights and fundamental freedoms. They also include the commitment to the principles of a free-market economy, which would facilitate the participation of Ukraine in European policies.

Ukraine’s EU membership would ultimately depend on whether the country can successfully address the issues it has been facing concerning the rule of law, respect for human rights, and fundamental freedoms. Nevertheless, the EU approach to the Ukraine conflict has been in support of Ukraine. The EU has put pressure on Russia through diplomatic restrictions while at the same time maintaining an ongoing dialogue. The diplomatic restrictions have included targeted sanctions against persons responsible for actions against Ukraine’s territorial integrity and later increasingly severe economic sanctions against Russia itself. The EU linked the duration of these sanctions to the complete implementation of the Minsk agreements. In parallel, the EU has supported talks aimed at ending the conflict through discussions in the Normandy format (France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia) and the Trilateral Contact Group (OSCE, Ukraine, and Russia).

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Dr. Frank C. Danesy is the founder and CEO of Intelsource, a company specialized in corporate strategy, strategic intelligence, human resource management, and conflict resolution. Before his current activity, he held various high-profile managerial roles in the space sector. He is deeply familiar with space government and industry and with the politics and processes of international organizations. He holds master’s degrees in business administration, intelligence studies, and space science. His doctorate is in leadership and conflict resolution.

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